Analysis shows decline from 23% year-over-year growth in 1Q18 to 6% forecast for 4Q18.

分析显示2018年的第四季度的IC市场增速预测从第一季度的23%下降到6%。

IC Insights’November Update to The 2018 McClean Report will present an in-depth analysis and detailed five-year forecast for the IC Industry, which is expected to enter a period of cyclical “cooling” after an extended period of very strong growth.

IC Insights在2018年McClean报告的11月份更新中将对IC产业进行深入分析和详尽的五年预测，预计在经历了长时间的强劲增长后，IC产业将进入周期性“降温”期。

Figure 1 illustrates the worldwide quarterly year-over-year IC market increases from 1Q through 3Q and IC Insights’ forecast for 4Q of this year.  As shown, the first half of 2018 started out with strong quarterly year-over-year growth for the IC market.  However, year-over-year IC market growth dropped to 14% in 3Q.  Moreover, with the softening of the memory market, IC Insights projects that year-over-year IC market growth in 4Q will be only 6%.

下图显示了从第一季度到第三季度的全球IC市场同比增长情况以及IC Insights对今年第四季度的预测。如图所示，2018年上半年开始，IC市场的季度同比增长强劲。然而，第三季度IC市场同比增长率下降至14％。此外，随着存储市场的疲软，IC Insights预计第四季度IC市场同比增长率仅为6％。

Figure 1

Third quarter sequential growth confirms the slowing year-over-year trend. In 2017, 3Q/2Q IC market growth was 11%.  This year, 3Q/2Q growth slowed to a 6% increase (the same rate as the long term average).  As mentioned, the softening memory market has started to become a “headwind” on total IC market growth.  It is interesting that in 2017, the 3Q/2Q memory market growth rate was a very strong 18%.  In contrast, the 3Q/2Q memory market increase in 2018 was 8%, less than half of last year’s rate.

第三季度的连续增长确认了同比增速放缓的趋势。 2017年第三季度/第二季度IC市场增长率为11％。今年第三季度/第二季度增长放缓至6％（与长期平均水平相同）。如上所述，疲软的存储市场已开始成为整个IC市场增长的“逆风”。有趣的是2017年第三季度/第二季度存储市场增长率为18％，增长非常强劲。相比之下，2018年第三季度/第二季度存储市场增长率为8％，不到去年的一半。